NOAA states that, "Confidence continues to increase for a potential significant coastal storm bringing strong winds, heavy precipitation, and coastal flooding across the area Sunday night through Monday night."
Potential for a period of accumulating heavy wet snow across the hills of Northeast NJ, Lower Hudson Valley, and SW CT Sunday night into Monday night.
An overview of potential hazards and impacts include:
Strong Winds
- Moderate potential for east winds of 30 to 40 mph with gusts 50-60 mph along the coast late Sunday Night through Monday Night.
- Low potential for wind gusts greater than 60 mph.
- Damage to trees and power lines possible.
Heavy Rain/Flooding
- Rainfall of 1-3 inches likely; 4+ inches possible Sunday Night intoMonday Night
- Heaviest rain Monday afternoon and evening with minor urban flooding likely.
- More serious urban flooding and small stream flooding possible if 4+ inches occur
- On rivers, significant within bank rises likely, but the threat for minor flooding of adjacent areas is slight.
Snow/Wintry Mix
- Potential for a period of accumulating heavy wet snow across the hills of Northeast NJ, Lower Hudson Valley, and SW CT Sunday night into Monday night.
Coastal Flooding
- Moderate potential for minor coastal flooding during Mon. and Tue. Morning high tides.
- Potential for locally moderate coastal flooding if peak surges coincide with high tides, heavy rain, and strong winds Mondayevening.
- The highest threat for coastal impacts will be for flood prone locales along the south shore bays of LI/NYC, eastern bays of LI, lower NY/NJ Harbor and western LI Sound.
- High surf will bring potential for dune erosion and localized wash overs along the Atlantic Ocean beachfront Monday into Tuesday.
Marine Hazards (Storm Watch Coastal Waters Sunday Night-MondayNight)
- East to Northeast Gales 34-47 kt likely Sunday night into Mondaynight on all waters.
- Potential for storm force gusts 48-62 kt on the ocean and Eastern LI Sound.
- Seas could build to 15 to 20 feet on the ocean waters Mon into Mon Night and 5 to 8 feet Sun Night into Mon Night on Long Island Sound.
Uncertainty
- There is model spread in timing and track of the storm this far out, which will affect rainfall timing and amounts, wintry precipitation potential, and coastal flood potential.
Please monitor www.weather.gov/okx for the latest weather forecast updates.
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