Wind Advisories are in effect for Connecticut on Saturday

Wind Advisories are in effect for Connecticut for Saturday afternoon

The following forecast is based on a blend of the HRRR, GFS and NAM computer models:  

This Afternoon and Tonight…The latest model runs remain about the same as the previous set this morning.  The computer models are forecasting that a pair of low-pressure systems will cross our area during the next 18 - 24 hours (one system overnight and the second system early Saturday morning).  The HRRR is indicating that most towns will see a few bands of moderate to heavy rainfall along with a few thunderstorms between 10:00 PM this evening and 8:00 AM Saturday morning.  The NOAA Storms Prediction Center has placed Connecticut in the Marginal Risk Category for a weak tornado (2% chance) and strong winds (5% chance) from the overnight storms.  Rainfall is expected to total 1” – 2” with a few isolated amounts up to 3” by daybreak on Saturday.  Rainfall totals over 2” in any areas overnight will saturate the soil in those towns.  The foliage is still on many trees, especially in Southern CT. 

Saturday…Shortly after the final low-pressure system passes and rainfall subsides Saturday morning, fairly strong west winds are forecast to start developing by 10:00 AM.  These winds will be the result of a departing but intensifying storm system.  The HRRR model is forecasting the potential for westerly wind gusts ranging between 40 – 50 MPH between 10:00 AM and 4:00 PM Saturday afternoon.  Towns can expect some power outages as a result of the winds, especially in Southern CT.  At this time the overall impact of this wind event is expected to be minor.  The winds are forecast to gradually subside Saturday evening.  

However, there is still some uncertainty in the forecast. We do not know exactly where the heaviest rain will fall overnight.   Also, the speed at which the departing storm intensifies tomorrow morning cannot be precisely forecasted at this time.  The timing of the intensification can have an impact on wind speeds, therefore, towns should closely monitor their local weather conditions in the morning.    

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