An area of low pressure will develop over the midsection of the country on Monday, November 10 and then track northeast into the Great Lakes Tuesday into Tuesday night. The associated warm front will approach the area from the southwest late Monday night into Tuesday with precipitation developing across the region toward daybreak and continuing through Tuesday night. Additionally, a secondary area of low pressure will develop along the front and pass near or just east of coastal locations Tuesday night.
- WHAT: Snow changes to rain at the coast and a wintry mix across the interior.
- WHERE: New York City, Northeast New Jersey, Long Island, Lower Hudson Valley, and southern Connecticut.
- WHEN: Precipitation develops late Monday night and gradually spreads northeast across the area through the morning rush on Tuesday. The snow and sleet at the coast will change over to plain rain by late morning or early afternoon with a more gradual transition across the interior with the potential for a prolonged period of sleet and freezing rain.
Potential Hazards and Impacts:
- There is a moderate potential for accumulating snow, sleet, and ice. Total snow and sleet accumulation of 1 to 3 inches at the coast and 2 to 5 inches inland, with the highest amounts falling across interior northeast New Jersey, the Lower Hudson Valley, and interior southwest Connecticut. Ice accretion at this time is for a tenth of an inch or less; however, there is the potential for higher amounts depending on how quickly the changeover from snow occurs.
- Snowfall rates of 1 to 2 inches per hour are possible before the changeover.
- Travel may become hazardous due to poor visibility and snow and ice covered roads.
- Uncertainty/Forecast Scenarios: Timing of the changeover is the most challenging factor at this time. An earlier changeover will cut down snowfall accumulations, but could result in more ice accretion across portions of the interior; however, higher snowfall amounts would be possible if the changeover was delayed by even an hour or two.
- Temperatures will generally be in the 20s inland and 25 to 30 at the coast at the onset of the event and then gradually rise through the day. Most locations will be above freezing by around 8 PM.
Additional Information and Resources:
NWS New York Website: https://www.weather.gov/okx/