Tropical Storm Nicole is currently 135 miles east of Florida. Nicole is forecast to track through Florida and Georgia Thursday into Friday while weakening, transitioning into a post-tropical depression and becoming absorbed into a frontal system that approaches the area Friday into Friday night.
The remnant tropical moisture will interact with the larger frontal system bringing moderate to locally heavy rainfall, strong winds, and rough marine conditions as it moves across the region late Friday into early Saturday morning.
Key Hazard and Impact Message:
* Moderate to Heavy Rain
* Storm Total Rainfall: 1 to 2" areawide, highest amounts across the interior
* Worst case scenario: Locally 2 to 3"
Rainfall Rates:
The probability of receiving greater than 1 inch of rain in a 6 hour period Friday night into early Saturday morning is about 15-20 percent.
Timing: Friday Eve into early Saturday morning.
Impacts: Main threat is urban and poor drainage flooding, with an isolated flash flood threat. Flooding could be locally exacerbated due to leaf-clogged drainages.
Peak Wind Gusts: 35 to 45 mph likely along the coast, including NYC. and 45 to 55 mph gusts possible for eastern Long Island.
Impacts: Scattered downed tree branches. Power outages possible.
Severe Thunderstorms
Isolated severe thunderstorms possible Friday Night, with damaging wind threat and even a brief tornado Friday night.
Timing: Main threat will be during a 2 to 4 hr period along and just ahead of the cold frontal passage Friday Night
Coastal/Shoreline Hazards
10ft+ breaking surf along the oceanfront possible late Fri night thru Sat morning
Impacts: Ocean beach flooding and erosion are likely during the time of high tide Saturday morning, with scattered areas of dune base erosion possible. Mainland coastal flooding (minor) is not likely.
Marine Hazards
Gale conditions are likely Fri Night into Sat morning, with 15ft+ ocean seas possible.
Since we are still 48 hours away from this event, minor changes to the hazard and impact details are possible. Rain, wind and severe thunderstorm details will be refined as well.
Stay up to date on Tropical Storm Nicole by visiting the National Hurricane Center, and our local forecast HERE.